Bitcoin miners are feeling the pinch of the halving event amid a fall in revenue, and now, with Bitcoin miner profitability at 2022 levels, let’s explore the impact on the hash rate and BTC price.
Bitcoin has evolved rapidly since launching almost 15 years ago. From the CPU and GPU mining era, the BTC mining scene has industrialized and become a giga multi-billion dollar enterprise.
You don’t have to look far: From Marathon Digital to Riot Blockchain, ordinary single miners rarely stand a chance.
Even amid this shift, Bitcoin continues to function as Satoshi intended. Every 10 minutes, miners must confirm a block of transactions, regardless of the computing power propping up the network.
In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the Halving
In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the Halving
If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving…
That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle… pic.twitter.com/rCgmxdDA3D
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 8, 2024
The more there are miners, the harder it becomes to confirm a block of transactions and earn BTC rewards.
After Halving on April 20, the number of BTC rewards distributed fell by 50%, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The network will distribute this amount every 10 minutes for the next four years.
This change has been rough for miners across the board. The drop in revenue is an existential threat, and they must adjust or be phased out.
The Revenue Slump: Miners Facing Underpayment
On-chain records on May 9 show that miners have been facing intense financial strain since the March 2020 COVID-19 market crash.
The sharp decline in revenue post-halving has pushed miners into a state of “underpayment.” In this scenario, miners spend more when they mine a block than the revenue they receive from block rewards.
Under this circumstance, some miners re-evaluate their operations and are likely to shut down less efficient machines.
Notably, the financial pressure on miners is manifesting tangibly on the Bitcoin network. Hash rate, which measures Bitcoin’s computing power, has been falling in recent weeks.
This development signals that some miners could be taking their machines offline or deliberately switching off some inefficient miners to reduce power costs.
In response to yesterday’s falling hash rate, the network reduced difficulty by the largest margin since December 2022. The 5.6% drop from 88.10 trillion to 83.15 trillion highlights the compounding difficulties miners are facing.
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Bitcoin Network Will Reward The Resilient
By reducing the difficulty, the Bitcoin network automatically ensures that block times remain as they are at approximately 10 minutes, even if the hash rate fluctuates. While the difficulty decline is welcomed and a temporary relief for struggling miners, profitability will be depressed in this epoch.
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Only rising prices, ideally a 2X surge taking Bitcoin above $100,000, would incentivize miners to plug back into the network, driving the hash rate higher. However, miners’ resilience and adaptability in the current low-reward environment will be tested as things stand.
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Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital
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