What should you expect from the FOMC meeting this week? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 16–17, with traders betting heavily on a 25-basis-point rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 92% probability of easing, a near certainty. The case rests on cooling inflation and weakening labor data. TLDW: FOMC meeting will likely lower interest rates, effectively turning on money printers. Expect long bond yields to GO UP!
“The probability of a quarter-point cut is almost baked in,” analysts at CME noted, pointing to CPI at 2.9% year-over-year and PPI softening below 3%.
This will mark the Fed’s first decisive pivot since the hiking cycle began in 2022, when crypto was at historic lows. Markets are primed for Powell’s post-meeting speech to confirm whether more cuts could follow in October or December.
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PPI and CPI have eased compared with last year, but remain above the Fed’s 2% target. CPI came in at 2.9% in August, while Core CPI was 3.1%, both elevated but trending lower. PPI showed a similar pattern with headline 3.3% and core 2.8%.
The Fed faces a balancing act of inflation, which isn’t yet “beaten,” but also fading job growth. August’s jobs report showed sub-100K monthly gains for the first time since COVID, and June posted a negative print of –13K.
https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1963949130373374327
Historically, rate cuts have weakened the dollar and driven demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin. The setup in 2025 looks no different. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $2.3 billion last week, with Fidelity’s Wise Origin Fund and BlackRock’s IBIT leading inflows. This was the highest weekly haul in two months, per Farside Investors.
Institutional treasuries also continue to accumulate. According to K33 Research, public companies now hold 950,000 BTC worth $110 billion, nearly double the amount held in early 2024.
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What Technical Levels Must Bitcoin Hold Ahead of the Fed Meeting?
On the charts, Bitcoin trades near $115,000, just above its 50-day EMA around $114,500. Analysts say this level is critical.
“The key will be if the markets sell the news as a 25bp cut is announced and prices are already baked in,” wrote trader Mark Cullen on X.
https://twitter.com/HolaItsAk47/status/1967214061734838531
A breakdown could trap BTC between $110K–$115K, but a hold sets up a test of resistance at $117K–$120K, with all-time highs near $124.5K back in sight.
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Market Liquidity Context: Why This Time Matters
CoinGlass data shows BTC futures open interest up 15% since early September. Meanwhile, the Total crypto market cap sits near $4.05 trillion, which is below recent highs but holding steady in a month that usually hurts Bitcoin.
The next move hinges on Powell. The rate cut is already priced in; what matters is tone. Dovish guidance could fuel a Q4 rally, while caution means we’re testing those $100k lows.
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Key Takeaways
- What should you expect from the FOMC meeting this week? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 16–17 this week.
- PPI and CPI have eased compared with last year, but remain above the Fed’s 2% target.
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