A ‘Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026’ market on Prediction platform Polymarket has surged 10% overnight, and is now flashing a 57% chance of ‘Yes’. It comes as BTC USD continues to struggle in its attempt to reclaim $110,000, highlighting its weak short-term price action.
All eyes are currently on the monthly close for Bitcoin. If it enters October above $108,000, its high-timeframe bullish structure will remain intact. However, if it falls under $108,000, Q4 could get ugly for the leading digital asset and, by proxy, the broader altcoin market.
Nearly $1.4M in Betting Volume on Polymarket Leaning Toward BTC USD Falling Below $100K by 2026
Seven figures in USD have now been wagered on the Polymarket ‘Will Bitcoin dip below $100K by 2026’, with the majority now believing it will, after a +10% swing overnight, taking the ‘Yes’ option to 57%.
It comes as BTC
Bitcoin
2.42%
Bitcoin
BTC
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$65,687.86
2.42% /24h
Volume in 24h
$22.58B
Price 7d
is trading at a crucial juncture, back over $109,000, but struggling to reclaim its crucial $110K level. The monthly close for Bitcoin is pivotal, as if it enters Q4 under $108,000, its bullish structure will be broken, and a drop to $96,000 would be on the cards.
Bitcoin losing $100k at a time when the entire crypto market is supposed to be hitting new highs would be a nasty look for the whole of the crypto market and could make for a bloody end to 2025.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting at the end of October could determine the direction of crypto for the remainder of 2025, with Polymarket currently projecting an 81% chance of another 25-basis-point rate cut, following the September cut.
This would provide some room for Bitcoin to breathe, as a 50bps cut in interest rates over two months will undoubtedly lead to an influx of capital into risk-on assets, such as crypto.
completely unexpected twist
not only did Jerome Powell just cut rates by 25bps, but the fed also announced 50bps more by end of 2025!!
BULLISH FOR MARKETS AND CRYPTO!!pic.twitter.com/jHgZKEcaxY
— borovik (@3orovik) September 17, 2025
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Talking of FOMC – Novogratz Believes a ‘Dovish’ Replacement for Jerome Powell Could Pump the Markets
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that Bitcoin may experience a significant rally in the fourth quarter and into 2026 if the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve is a “monetary dove.”
In a YouTube interview with crypto influencer Kyle Chasse, Novogratz highlighted the potential nomination of a pro-easing candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as a crucial turning point for digital assets.
“That’s the potential biggest bull catalyst for Bitcoin and the rest of crypto,” Novogratz said. He added that a dovish pivot, particularly if it involves aggressive rate cuts, could lead to a dramatic run-up in prices.
“Can Bitcoin get to $200K? Of course it could,” he said, suggesting such a scenario could spark a “blow-off top” moment in the market. The Fed’s current chair, Jerome Powell, is set to complete his term in May 2026.
Following September’s 25bps cut, Powell has hinted that a further 50bps worth of cuts could be on the table for the remainder of 2025, which in itself would be extremely bullish for the entire crypto market.
This bullish outlook for crypto contradicts Elon Musk’s Grok AI chatbot, which predicted yesterday that the bull run could come to an end much sooner than most would like.
To keep things simple, watch for the Bitcoin monthly close and take it step by step from there. Under $108k and the possibility of a parabolic altcoin run looks bleak; over $108k, and crypto has freedom to run throughout the remainder of 2025.
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