This article is the first installment of a new, weekly Bitcoin market report on Coin Brief. In these market reports, provide a recap of the Bitcoin price movement throughout the course of the week, which will start at midnight on Sunday and will end at midnight on the following Sunday. We will also provide analysis for any, major news stories that have had a clear impact on the Bitcoin price—if warranted. Lastly, we will provide a ceteris paribus (all things remaining equal) forecast of the Bitcoin price movement for the coming week. Keep in mind, though, that his forecast relies upon all of the present factors that are determining the price movements to remain equal; it is highly unlikely that those factors will ever persist for any length of time. So, while we will say that the Bitcoin price will do x, ceteris paribus, just keep in mind that the actual movements will likely vary from our general forecast.
That being said, let us look at the daily, opening prices for the week on the Bitstamp Bitcoin exchange:
Note: The prices in our report have been rounded to the nearest dollar amount. Therefore, our description of the week’s price movements will not be perfectly accurate.
Quick Overview of the Daily Price of Bitcoin
Aug 17: $520
Aug 18: $493 (-5.19%)
Aug 19: $464 (-5.88%)
Aug 20: $475 (+2.37%)
Aug 21: $526 (+10.29)
Aug 22: $511 (-2.66%)
Aug 23: $507 (-0.78%)
Aug 24: $502 (-0.98%)
Weekly change: -3.46%
Judging by our record of the daily, opening prices for the week, we can see that the markets had a bearish week overall, with the Bitcoin price falling by 3.46%. However, when we examine the activity of each day a little more closely, we will see that the week started out bearish but then took a positive upturn, and then embarked upon what could possibly be a continuation of the recent bear trend. Towards the middle of the week, the price began recovering from a steady decline—preceding this past week—which was exacerbated by a flash-crash on BTC-e in the early part of the week.
Weekly Bitcoin Price Recap
Bitcoin Price – August 17
The week got started on a relatively positive note; August 17 began at $520, generously recovering from a few weeks of volatile and bearish market activity. However, shortly after the day started, the Bitcoin price resumed its decline. By the close of 7 AM, the price had fallen to $491. The price stayed in the $490s for the rest of the day—except for a brief stint in the low $500s—and closed at $493
Bitcoin Price – August 18
Monday, the 18th, started out at $493, down 5.19% from the start of the previous day. To add to this downward momentum, there was a flash-crash on the BTC-e Bitcoin exchange around 7 or 8 AM. In this crash, the price on BTC-e plunged to a low of $309. This flash-crash had an impact on the rest of the exchanges, of course, and the Bitstamp price concomitantly fell to a low of $442. Almost immediately after the crash, the Bitstamp price returned to the $460s and stayed there for the rest of the day, closing out at $464.
Bitcoin Price – August 19
Tuesday opened at $464, down 5.88% from the start of Monday. This day seemed to serve as the staging ground for a potential recovery from both the Bitfinex and the more recent BTC-e flash-crash, steadily moving up throughout the entire day and peaking at $494. However, at 11 PM just before the market was able to reenter $500s territory, the Bitcoin price fell back down to $475. The 19th then concluded at midnight, with the price at $475.
Bitcoin Price – August 20
This day started out at $475, up 2.37% from the start of the previous day. The price embarked upon a substantial upturn early in the morning; starting out at $470 at 2 AM, the Bitcoin price reached $531 by the close of 10 PM, with an hourly peak of $534. The price fell from the $530s to $525 at 11, and ended the day at $526.
Bitcoin Price – August 21
The 21st opened at $526, marking a 10.73% increase from the opening of the 20th. This day was a fairly flat day in terms of Bitcoin price movement; the price hovered in the $520s for the majority of the day, falling into the low $510s at the end of the day. The 21st closed at $511.
Bitcoin Price – August 22
Friday began at $511, down 2.66% from the start of Thursday, the 21st. The markets spent the first half of the day on the rise, with the price reaching $523 by noon. The second half of the day was spent on the decline, however, falling into the $500s in the later hours of the night, and closing at $507.
Bitcoin Price – August 23
Saturday, the 23rd, opened at $507, down 0.78% from the previous day. The majority of this day was fairly flat; the Bitcoin price stayed in the $500s for the entire day, except for a 2 hour stint in the $480s-90s. At midnight, the week ended at $502, a 0.98% decrease from the beginning of the 23rd, with an overall price decline of 3.46% for the entire week.
Where Will the Price of Bitcoin Go From Here?
It appears as if the Bitcoin price has spent most of the week trying to recover from a general decline that has persisted for a few weeks, exacerbated by the BTC-e flash-crash of this past week and the flash-crash on Bitfinex in the previous week. Towards the middle of the week, the price reached a peak of $534, and then dipped down to the mid $520s. Then, the price moved into the $510s and $500s.
At this stage, it is difficult to say whether or not this activity is indicative of a return to the general downward trend we have been facing in the past few weeks, or if the price is simply finding a place to settle at in the $500s-$480s range.
Therefore, for our general, ceteris paribus, forecast for the coming week, we must advance two possibilities:
The first one is a more positive forecast; if the price has indeed settled down in a range between the low $500s and the $480s, then we can expect the price to be fairly sideways. That is, until the next valuation shift occurs and another upward or downward trend is initiated.
Our second forecast for the coming week holds that the price will continue declining, as it has been doing since the end of the weekly $534 peak, until it either levels out or turns upward. If this latter scenario proves to be the case, then we cannot say how long the decline will last, given that it will be a part of a broader downtrend that has persisted for weeks. Therfore, it is possible that the Bitcoin price could decline for the entirety of the coming week, making our next report a very bearish one.