Bitcoin price may be topping out, looking at on-chain data. There are now more speculators than HODLers. Will BTC price hold above $90,000?
The Bitcoin
Bitcoin
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$64,231.88
1.29% /24h
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$16.50B
Price 7d
rally might be coming to an end, according to the latest Glassnode data. At press time, the world’s most valuable coin is trading at around $95,500, stable in the past 24 hours, pushing the global crypto market cap to $3.2 trillion, down 3.3% in 24 hours.
While there is hope that bulls will ward off determined sellers and successfully defend support at around the $94,000 to $95,000 zone, the series of lower lows in the past two weeks remains a concern. From the BTCUSDT chart, the coin is down 13% from all-time highs and consolidates, moving sideways as the uptrend loses momentum.
Currently, Bitcoin is stable, moving inside last week’s range, finding resistance at $100,000. Although there is no dismissing the possibility of buyers driving the coin above this psychological round number, onchain data suggests otherwise.
BTC Price Analysis: Is Bitcoin Price On Its Last Legs?
(BTCUSDT)
There are signs of exhaustion, Glassnode analysts say.
In a post on X yesterday, Glassnode pointed to the Bitcoin Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL) chart. RHODL is used to gauge the balance between mid-cycle holders, or those who have held the coin for between 6 and 24 months, against new entrants, that is, addresses who have held the coin for less than three months.
#Bitcoin's RHODL Ratio helps identify cycle inflection points by comparing mid-cycle holders (6m-2y) to new entrants (1d-3m). A high ratio often happens near market bottoms. A low ratio signals excessive short-term speculation, often aligning with market tops. pic.twitter.com/59SXdyAYWG
— glassnode (@glassnode) February 17, 2025
Historically, whenever the RHODL ratio is high, it tends to signal market bottoms. Meanwhile, when it is low, there are more short-term holders than diamond hands, signaling the possibility of the market heating up due to high speculation.
It appears that more traders are punting, looking to flip the market for quick gains. The RHODL ratio has been declining and is presently at levels analysts think mark the last stage of bull runs. Although it is not at absolute lows, a dropping RHODL ratio means investors are not keen on holding but rather speculate on prices.
If this ratio continues to fall and then rebounds strongly, it may point to the entry of confident traders willing to HODL the market. In that event, prices may print above $100,000 and race to as high as $110,000 in a buy trend continuation formation.
BTC Finds Support at $90,000 and $95,000
Traders will, therefore, be watching the $94,000 to $95,000 zone, checking whether it will support bulls.
From the adjusted Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, Glassnode places the local support at $96,300. This level was comprehensively broken yesterday. In their assessment, this breach may open the door for sellers to enter, pushing prices to $80,000.
#Bitcoin's adjusted MVRV Z-Score can be used to approximate areas of critical price support. So far price has held near the mean level of $96.3K. If prices break lower, the next major line of defense for bulls may be found at -1.5σ level ($80.1K): https://t.co/jwSxMmYW4i pic.twitter.com/fXLOrWjhw1
— glassnode (@glassnode) February 17, 2025
Further analysis of the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) volume profile reveals that Bitcoin has a liquidity gap beneath $96,300. For this reason, the zone between $71,000 and $92,000 is sensitive and could easily break should prices drop.
Even so, parallel data shows sellers must break below $92,200, the short-term holder (STH) cost basis level. A level lower, there is the psychological support at $90,000, which was retested in early February 2025.
Furthermore, fundamentals support Bitcoin and other safe havens. Rising inflation in the United States, Donald Trump calling for lower interest rates, and the possibility of the crypto task force led by David Sacks approving the creation of the first national Bitcoin reserve may help catalyze demand.
(Source)
As of February 17, institutions held over $114 billion worth of BTC via spot Bitcoin ETFs. On February 14, they bought over $66 million of BTC-backed shares.
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Bitcoin Uptrend Shaky: Details
- Bitcoin is trading below $100,000
- Glassnode analysts say there are more speculators than long-term holders
- Will BTC bulls reject any attempt to push prices below $90,000?
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