Wall Street and the cryptocurrency market are convinced that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep his promise and continue cutting rates. It’s the top story fueling FOMC crypto predictions. Futures markets now give a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at month’s end, up from barely half that a few weeks ago.
Moreover, the US government shutdown has locked the doors at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, killing the September jobs report and key spending data. With no numbers and no clarity, Powell’s team is running policy on instinct.
“A lack of fresh data means the Fed can’t confirm that the labor market remains on solid ground,” said Krishna Guha, head of global policy at Evercore ISI.
There’s a running theory that Powell won’t give deeper rate cuts until people get laid off and then they default on their burrito and pizza credit card debt. Let’s talk about that and 3 predictions for the upcoming FOMC:
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1. FOMC Crypto Predictions: Can The US Shutdown Move Markets?
Shutdowns are routine in Washington DC these days, but the timing couldn’t be worse. Tens of thousands of federal workers are furloughed while the Fed faces one of its most delicate balancing acts in years.
The last time markets faced this mix of data drought and political paralysis, volatility surged across asset classes and
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Meanwhile, the economic sentiment of US adults is deeply negative, with 74% describing conditions as “fair or poor,” according to Pew Research.
The unemployment rate has crept to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, and private payroll data from ADP shows 32,000 job losses in September. We’re in stagflation and Donald Trump wants interest rates near 0% and Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Rates will fall and continue to fall, and by 2026 money might be printed at unprecedented rates again.
“Persistent inflation, resilient demand, and only modest labor market slack suggest policy is barely restrictive,” said Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
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2. Bitcoin’s New Dance with the Fed
Glassnode data shows a surge in long-term holder accumulation for Bitcoin, while exchange outflows have increased 9% week-over-week, a sign of growing conviction. DeFi Llama reports $82.5 Bn in total value locked (TVL) across decentralized finance, up 11% from last month, with Ethereum and Solana leading inflows.
With gold hitting $3,900 and the Nikkei climbing 4.3% on Japan’s fiscal stimulus expectations, traders are treating BTC as the third safe haven in the new global triad: gold, stocks, and code.
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3. FOMC Crypto: The Fed Still Holds Crypto’s Fate, What’s Next?
Each rate cut solves one problem and creates another. Two more cuts before year’s end would almost guarantee another liquidity rush by early 2026.
“Every cut weakens the dollar’s moral authority,” said one macro trader in Singapore. “That’s bullish for Bitcoin – and terrifying for policymakers.”
The Fed’s decision this month won’t just steer stocks or bonds, but will set the tone for crypto’s next leg. If Powell cuts without fresh data, it confirms what markets already suspect: central banks are ready to print and give Trump what he wants.
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Key Takeaways
- Wall St.’s convinced Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep his promise and keep cutting rates. It’s the top story fueling FOMC crypto predictions.
- Two more cuts before year’s end would almost guarantee another liquidity rush by early 2026.
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