Bitcoin Obituaries

Neither Satoshi Nakamoto nor Bitcoin ever stood any chance of operating outside the bounds of conventional society. There will be regulation, there will be consumer protection, there will be rules and taxes, and criminal prosecutions for those who break the law. Bitcoin isn’t cyberpunk fantasy and it isn’t a Thomas Pynchon novel. It’s dull. The thrill is gone. And that’s why people are so mad.

Opinions are still divided, but the evidence that Bitcoin is doomed to failure piles up almost every day. . . . Of course, we Bitcoin doomsayers have been waiting for the bubble to pop for some time now. We also tend to think that every new drop is a sign of it’s impending doom. . . . Anyone still willing to bet a Bitcoin on the future of Bitcoin?

All of which is why I’m convinced that while bitcoin (or something like it) is likely to hang around as a niche commodity for certain kinds of gray- and black-market transactions, Mt. Gox pretty much assures that the average consumer will never use it. Because there is no way for you to ever ensure that your bitcoins are completely safe. . . . The speculators may not realize it yet, but you can stick a fork in bitcoin. It’s done.

Bottom line: Bitcoin’s days are numbered. Literally. Williams predicts that Bitcoin “will trade for under $10″ by June 30, 2014. A bold prediction, no doubt. But the point is clear – Bitcoin doesn’t stand a chance at ever gaining widespread adoption.

Bitcoin’s market cap on paper by far exceeds that of the competition, but the ability to translate Bitcoin wealth to wealth in other forms is very limited. There are many Bitcoin holders heavily invested in Bitcoin’s success and it has a first mover advantage. However as a store of value, its only value is reputational, and recent developments have shaken that reputation.

But does this one significant report of Bitcoin failure mean that the virtual currency is doomed to failure? I am no Bitcoin expert but I do know that any given currency is rooted in belief, which is then supported by faith in the issuing entity. Therefore, once the belief or faith is gone, the currency is gone. Thus far, in the opinion of your humble author, Bitcoin is nothing more than illusion.

Bitcoin does not yet have enough users to continue its survival. . . . it will go the way of laser discs and eight-track tapes.

After a year of volatile price swings, the data is finally available and obvious enough that the concept of the Bitcoin as a currency is finally starting to fade. . . . the fatal flaw of the Bitcoin is that it is intentionally deflationary.