{"id":741,"date":"2026-02-11T10:30:23","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T10:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/?p=741"},"modified":"2026-02-11T10:30:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T10:30:13","slug":"bloomberg-analyst-warns-of-potential-bitcoin-crash-in-latest-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/news\/bloomberg-analyst-warns-of-potential-bitcoin-crash-in-latest-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u5927\u7a7a\u982d\u964d\u81e8\u3000\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u8981\u8dcc\u6389 85% \u958b\u555f\u201c\u6df1\u718a\u201d\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\u6b0a\u5a01\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b Mike McGlone \u6700\u8fd1\u5c0d\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u5834\u767c\u51fa\u6158\u70c8\u9810\u8b66\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6700\u8fd1\u8d70\u52e2\u75b2\u8edf\u3001\u660e\u986f\u56de\u6a94\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u9019\u4f4d\u8001\u724c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u773c\u88e1\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u53f2\u8a69\u7d1a\u5927\u7011\u5e03\u7684\u524d\u6232\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u6050\u4e00\u8def\u5411\u4e0b\u63d2\u91dd\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u56de\u8e29 10,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u7206\u8868\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u7dd2\u6975\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002\u56de\u9867\u904e\u53bb 30 \u5929\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u624d\u525b\u5403\u4e86\u4e00\u8a18\u60b6\u68cd\uff0c\u5e63\u50f9\u5f9e\u9ad8\u4f4d\u660e\u986f\u7e2e\u6c34\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5728 68,500 \u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u6a6b\u76e4\u9707\u76ea\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0cMike McGlone \u537b\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u5728\u9084\u6c92\u5230\u5e95\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u62cb\u51fa 10,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6975\u7aef\u76ee\u6a19\u50f9\u2014\u2014\u9019\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u8981\u5f9e\u9ad8\u9ede\u8173\u8e1d\u65ac\u3001\u8dcc\u5e45\u9ad8\u9054 85%\u3002\u9019\u756a\u770b\u7a7a\u8a00\u8ad6\u4e00\u51fa\uff0c\u7acb\u523b\u5728\u793e\u5340\u5f15\u767c\u71b1\u8b70\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u89ba\u5f97\u662f\u5728\u6563\u4f48 FUD\uff08\u6050\u614c\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u64d4\u5fc3\u6df1\u718a\u771f\u7684\u8981\u4f86\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-742 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/02\/52.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"503\" height=\"774\" srcset=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/02\/52.jpg 503w, https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/02\/52-195x300.jpg 195w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 503px) 100vw, 503px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/mikemcglone11\/status\/2020860592312156667?s=20\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/x.com\/mikemcglone11\/status\/2020860592312156667?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>\u5c08\u5bb6\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u9019\u6ce2\u662f\u771f\u5229\u7a7a\u9084\u662f\u55ae\u7d14 FUD\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u8981\u89e3\u8b80\u9019\u6ce2\u6975\u5ea6\u770b\u7a7a\u7684\u9810\u8b66\uff0c\u5f97\u5148\u770b\u770b\u9019\u4f4d\u5927\u4f6c\u7684\u6230\u7e3e\u3002McGlone \u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u662f\u90a3\u7a2e\u7121\u8166\u9ed1\u7684\u300c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u9ed1\u7c89\u300d\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u4ed6\u904e\u53bb\u5c0d\u9577\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u55c5\u89ba\u975e\u5e38\u9748\u654f\u30022020 \u5e74 10 \u6708\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u795e\u9810\u8a00\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6703\u5728 5 \u5e74\u5167\u6311\u6230 100,000 \u9382\uff0c\u96a8\u5f8c\u884c\u60c5\u78ba\u5be6\u9a57\u8b49\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u773c\u5149\u3002\u751a\u81f3 2018 \u5e74\u90a3\u6ce2\u6df1\u718a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u7cbe\u6e96\u6293\u5230\u4e86\u4e0b\u884c\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u7576\u6642\u7684\u5e95\u90e8\u6bd4\u4ed6\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u9084\u8981\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u4f4d\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u9019\u6b21\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u9019\u9ebc\u300c\u55aa\u300d\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5d29\u6f70\u908f\u8f2f\u3002\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u8655\u65bc\u300c\u5927\u56de\u6b78\u300d\u7684\u524d\u591c\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u5927\u578b\u8870\u9000\u524d\u7684\u8ff4\u5149\u8fd4\u7167\u3002\u4ed6\u7279\u5225\u76ef\u8457 S&amp;P 500 \u6307\u6578\u8207\u9ec3\u91d1\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u8ddf 1929 \u5e74\u5927\u856d\u689d\u524d\u7684\u5d29\u76e4\u524d\u5146\u6975\u5ea6\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u6975\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6050\u6015\u7121\u6cd5\u767c\u63ee\u300c\u6578\u4f4d\u9ec3\u91d1\u300d\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u5c6c\u6027\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u6703\u4f5c\u70ba\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u8ddf\u8457\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e00\u8d77\u966a\u846c\u5927\u8df3\u6c34\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-744 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/02\/54.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"505\" height=\"739\" srcset=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/02\/54.jpg 505w, https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/02\/54-205x300.jpg 205w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 505px) 100vw, 505px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/mikemcglone11\/status\/2021197058934210718?s=20\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/x.com\/mikemcglone11\/status\/2021197058934210718?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u771f\u80fd\u8dcc\u5230 10,000\uff1f\u5230\u5e95\u73fe\u4e0d\u73fe\u5be6\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u5f9e\u6280\u8853\u9762\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5982\u679c\u771f\u7684\u66b4\u8dcc 85%\uff0c\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5176\u5be6\u4e26\u975e\u6c92\u6709\u5148\u4f8b\u3002\u56de\u9867 2013 \u5e74\u548c 2017 \u5e74\u7684\u5927\u725b\u9802\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5206\u5225\u8fce\u4f86\u4e86 86% \u548c 77% \u7684\u53f2\u8a69\u7d1a\u56de\u64a4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>McGlone \u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u56b4\u91cd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u65b0\u7684\u5229\u597d\u3002\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5229\u597d\u2014\u2014\u50cf\u662f \u73fe\u8ca8 ETF \u843d\u5730\u2014\u2014\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u90fd\u5df2\u7d93 Price-in\uff08\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u5e63\u50f9\u4e2d\uff09 \u6216\u8005\u662f\u5229\u597d\u51fa\u76e1\u4e86\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u9084\u6307\u51fa\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u904e\u65bc\u788e\u7247\u5316\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u9ec3\u91d1\u4f5c\u70ba\u50b3\u7d71\u50f9\u503c\u5132\u5b58\u624b\u6bb5\u8868\u73fe\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u9019\u5c0d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c0f\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u8981\u5b88\u4f4f\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u652f\u6490\u4f4d\u96e3\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-745 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/02\/55.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"501\" height=\"641\" srcset=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/02\/55.jpg 501w, https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/02\/55-234x300.jpg 234w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 501px) 100vw, 501px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/2019246686166716588?s=20\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/x.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/2019246686166716588?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>\u8001\u97ed\u83dc\u8207\u5de8\u9be8\u7684\u5c0d\u6c7a\uff01\u662f\u7011\u5e03\u8d77\u9ede\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u7d55\u4f73\u6284\u5e95\u6a5f\u6703\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u9664\u4e86 Mike McGlone\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u4e5f\u7d1b\u7d1b\u958b\u555f\u770b\u7a7a\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u50b3\u5947\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1 Peter Brandt \u6700\u8fd1\u4e5f\u7d66\u51fa\u4e86\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u76ee\u6a19\u50f9\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6c92\u90a3\u9ebc\u6975\u7aef\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6a23\u6697\u793a\u56de\u8abf\u9084\u6c92\u7d50\u675f\u3002McGlone \u88dc\u5145\u9053\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u9060\u8d85\u7f8e\u80a1\uff0c\u4f46\u8d70\u52e2\u537b\u53c8\u8ddf\u7f8e\u80a1\u9ad8\u5ea6\u806f\u52d5\uff0c\u9019\u8b93\u98a8\u96aa\u500d\u589e\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f46\u5225\u6025\u8457\u5272\u8089\uff01\u5e02\u5834\u7d50\u69cb\u8ddf\u60c5\u7dd2\u9762\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u5287\u672c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u9810\u6e2c\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u6158\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e9b\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u4e0d\u6703\u8f15\u6613\u5d29\u76e4\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u4f54\u6bd4\u9ad8\u9054 59.2%\uff0c\u9019\u8aaa\u660e\u8cc7\u91d1\u6b63\u5f9e\u98a8\u96aa\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5c71\u5be8\u5e63\u56de\u6d41\u5230\u5927\u9905\u907f\u96aa\u3002\u52a0\u4e0a\u73fe\u5728\u6709\u6a5f\u69cb\u5de8\u9be8\u548c ETF \u6490\u8170\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5927\u6236\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u908f\u8f2f\u662f\u9577\u7dda\u4f48\u5c40\uff0c\u4e0d\u50cf\u77ed\u7dda\u6295\u6a5f\u5ba2\u90a3\u6a23\u5bb9\u6613\u6050\u614c\u62cb\u552e\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5373\u4fbf\u5e63\u50f9\u56de\u6e2c 60,000 \u9382\uff0c\u8001\u97ed\u83dc\u5011\u4f9d\u7136\u8001\u795e\u5728\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u770b\u60c5\u7dd2\u9762\uff1a\u6050\u61fc\u8207\u8caa\u5a6a\u6307\u6578\u6700\u8fd1\u8dcc\u9032\u4e86\u300c\u6975\u5ea6\u6050\u61fc\u300d\u5340\u3002\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u7d93\u9a57\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u300c\u5225\u4eba\u5728\u6050\u61fc\u6642\u6211\u8caa\u5a6a\u300d\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u6642\u5019\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5c40\u90e8\u5e95\u90e8\u800c\u975e\u5d29\u76e4\u8d77\u9ede\u3002\u7576\u6563\u6236\u5728\u5272\u8089\u6642\uff0c\u5c08\u696d\u73a9\u5bb6\u53cd\u800c\u8d81\u6a5f\u5206\u6279\u5efa\u5009\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u8abf\u67e5\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u7c60\u7f69\u5728\u5d29\u76e4\u9670\u5f71\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709 70% \u7684\u5c08\u696d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u89e3\u91cb\u4e86\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9084\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u885d\u9032\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63 Layer 2 \u7684\u9810\u552e\u9805\u76ee\uff08\u5982 <a href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/zh-tw\/visit\/bitcoinhyper\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored\" target=\"_blank\">Bitcoin Hyper<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u5c0b\u6c42\u8d85\u984d\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u751a\u81f3\u9023\u85a9\u723e\u74e6\u591a\u9019\u7a2e\u570b\u5bb6\u7d1a\u947d\u77f3\u624b\u4e5f\u5728\u8d81\u8dcc\u5e45\u6284\u5e95\uff0c\u5c55\u73fe\u4e86\u5c0d\u52a0\u5bc6\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3002McGlone \u7684\u300c\u8173\u8e1d\u65ac\u300d\u9810\u8a00\u662f\u5426\u6210\u771f\uff0c\u95dc\u9375\u9084\u662f\u770b\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u81c9\u8272\u548c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u653e\u6c34\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u76ef\u7dca\u5b8f\u89c0\u6578\u64da\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u5225\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u73fe\u5728\u5e63\u5708\u7684\u5e95\u6c23\u65e9\u5c31\u4e0d\u6bd4\u7576\u5e74\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\u6b0a\u5a01\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b Mike McGlone \u6700\u8fd1\u5c0d\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u5834\u767c\u51fa\u6158\u70c8\u9810\u8b66\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6700\u8fd1\u8d70\u52e2\u75b2\u8edf\u3001\u660e\u986f\u56de\u6a94\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u9019\u4f4d\u8001\u724c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u773c\u88e1\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u53f2\u8a69\u7d1a\u5927\u7011\u5e03\u7684\u524d\u6232\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u6050\u4e00\u8def\u5411\u4e0b\u63d2\u91dd\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u56de\u8e29 10,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u95dc\u3002 \u76ee\u524d\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u7206\u8868\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u7dd2\u6975\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002\u56de\u9867\u904e\u53bb 30 \u5929\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u624d\u525b\u5403\u4e86\u4e00\u8a18\u60b6\u68cd\uff0c\u5e63\u50f9\u5f9e\u9ad8\u4f4d\u660e\u986f\u7e2e\u6c34\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5728 68,500 \u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u6a6b\u76e4\u9707\u76ea\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0cMike McGlone \u537b\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u5728\u9084\u6c92\u5230\u5e95\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u62cb\u51fa 10,000 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