Prediction: Cryptocurrency Volume Increasing, Values Decreasing?

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Juniper Research anticipates a sharp decline in cryptocurrency transactions during 2015. As compared to 2014, the value of Bitcoin and Altcoin transactions is expected to drop by approximately half, from $71 billion to $30 billion.

But volumes are surging and expected to double by 2017 reports author Dr. Windsor Holden. He believes this increased volume, however, is not enough to offset the decline in value and does not see Bitcoin reaching the volumes needed for mass adoption.

The report identifies the need for immediate settlements as a key to positive growth. Dr. Holden states, “It is likely that we will see the technologies behind cryptocurrency deployed in areas such as real-time transactional settlement. Ripple Labs is already focusing overwhelming on that approach and in the medium term we may see a role evolution to this end amongst other cryptocurrency players.”

Contrary to libertarian ideology, the report suggests the use of licensed, regulated exchanges to promote stable currency values. This, in turn, could encourage an increase in retail adoption. But Dr. Holden is quick to add: “It doesn’t necessarily follow that the more retailers that deploy it, the more people will use it.”

He sees an unregulated arena destroying consumer confidence: the Mt Gox exchange debacle, BitStamp hot wallet thefts, and MyCoin’s scam accusation, as recent examples. But is regulation the only answer?

The full paper, titled “The Future of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin & Altcoin Impact & Opportunities 2015-2019″, is available for a fee. Before pulling out your wallet, some questions beg to be answered:

  • Who is Dr. Windsor Holden, and what makes him an credible expert in the cryptocurrency space?
  • This is his first assessment on the cryptocurrency markets; what is his track record on other market analyses?
  • The report is supported by  past data, but given the short history of cryptocurrencies, how can a forecast be made with any degree of accuracy?

What do you think?  Would you purchase this academic paper and rely on its analysis?  Should the publication be receiving as much attention as the news feeds are giving it?

Coinbuzz

CoinBuzz provides news and analysis on Bitcoin and other digital currencies. Founded in 2014, the site has quickly become a leading source of information on digital currency technologies, businesses, markets, and regulation.

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3 Comments on "Prediction: Cryptocurrency Volume Increasing, Values Decreasing?"

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yanopolo
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yanopolo

“The report is supported by past data, but given the short history of cryptocurrencies, how can a forecast be made with any degree of accuracy?”

By looking at the growth of previous bubbles (pic related)

Cassius
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Cassius

Take off = $3
First Sell off = $10
Media attention = $30″New Paradigm” = $1,200
Return to “normal” = $700
Despair = $180
Return to the mean = $220 [now]

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