There have been some curious developments over the last 24 hours in the market! Some of the price volatility that we have seen over the past week has subsided for the moment, though this likely will not last. Market price has already met with severely heavy resistance at the $225 mark and any bullish trades will not make this price momentum any easier. Let’s move to the 30 minute mark:
So we have got some bullish momentum right around the $216 mark yesterday April 14th as it moved into a technically strong central trend at $220. The resistance we mentioned earlier at the $225 level is why price has held despite the positive bullish upward movement; this was one of the scenarios from yesterday’s report, instead of a price movement closer to the $200 mark. If the market can move past this resistance and into the $228 to $234 range, there would then be some strong trading options that we could explore. However, there needs to be healthy doubt about the sustainability and near-term consequences of this bullish momentum. This is especially important because of the highly oversold market bounces that the market has experienced in the last few days.
Let’s take a look at one more technical for today at the 15 minute mark:
There are a lot of things happening all at once on this technical but it is not a very informative one for any trading purposes. I chose this one to highlight the recent but uncertain volatility drop; notice how over the last 12 hours the min and max peaks have not had any net price movement from $220 despite all the market orders. I caution anyone from making trades based on this short-term slowdown in volatility since it is unlikely to last any period of time. Anyway, no matter the technical or perspective there is a strong downtrend and this recent level off around a price of $220 is a countertrend rally.
I do not have any explicit trade recommendations since it is too difficult to currently balance risk and reward against market loss. Though if like profitable risk, some short trades with current prices and a tight stop at $225 would be reasonable in the meantime. If there is any decline in volume and price has held at $220 then we will be on our way down to $210 and possibly $200. Happy trading!
P.S. For those who like to explain their investment body of knowledge, I have decided from this watch forward I will close with Investopedia’s daily term, today is unsystematic risk:
“Company- or industry-specific hazard that is inherent in each investment. Unsystematic risk, also known as “nonsystematic risk,” “specific risk,” “diversifiable risk” or “residual risk,” can be reduced through diversification. By owning stocks in different companies and in different industries, as well as by owning other types of securities such as Treasuries and municipal securities, investors will be less affected by an event or decision that has a strong impact on one company, industry or investment type.”
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