{"id":35745,"date":"2026-08-11T22:52:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T13:52:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/kr\/?p=35745"},"modified":"2026-08-11T22:52:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T13:52:23","slug":"us-government-shutdown-probability-bitcoin-kalshi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/kr\/news\/pr-news\/us-government-shutdown-probability-bitcoin-kalshi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e \ud558\uc6d0 \uc784\uc2dc\uc608\uc0b0\uc548 \ud1b5\uacfc\u2026\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\ub294 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \ud655\ub960\uc740"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">\ubbf8 \ud558\uc6d0\uc774 \uc9c0\ub09c 7\uc6d4 21\uc77c \ucc2c\uc131 220\ud45c, \ubc18\ub300 205\ud45c\ub85c \uc784\uc2dc\uc608\uc0b0\uc548(Continuing Resolution\u00b7CR)\uc744 \ud1b5\uacfc\uc2dc\ucf30\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c 9\uc6d4 30\uc77c\ub85c \uc608\uc815\ub410\ub358 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80 \uc608\uc0b0 \uc2dc\ud55c\uc744 12\uc6d4 4\uc77c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc774 \ucd94\uc9c4\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70\ub97c \uc55e\ub454 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4 \uc77c\ub2e8 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">\ud558\uc6d0 \ud45c\uacb0 \uc9c1\ud6c4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc815\ubd80 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc608\uce21\uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud588\ub2e4. \uce7c\uc2dc(Kalshi)\uc640 \ud3f4\ub9ac\ub9c8\ucf13(Polymarket)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 10\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uc5f0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud45c\uacb0 \uc774\uc804\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<p>\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc608\uce21\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud655\ub960 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uc608\uc0b0 \uac08\ub4f1\uc758 \ud574\uc18c\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uad6d\ubc29\ube44\uc640 \uc120\uac70\ubc95 \uad00\ub828 \uc870\ud56d, \uc815\ubd80 \uc9c0\ucd9c \uaddc\ubaa8 \ub4f1\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc815\uce58\uad8c\uc758 \uc774\uacac\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4. \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc84c\ub2e4\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub4a4\ub85c \ubbf8\ub904\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<div id=\"crypto_chart_6a7afeb61eea8\" class=\"chart crypto-chart-instance\" data-coin-id=\"btc\">\r\n<div class=\"chart__header\">\r\n<div class=\"chart__info\">\r\n<div class=\"chart__info-extra\">\r\n<div class=\"chart__info-label\"><div class=\"chart crypto-chart-instance\" id=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07\"\n\tdata-coin-id=\"btc\">\n\t<div class=\"chart__header\">\n\t\t<div class=\"chart__info\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<img id=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-chart__info-icon-img\" \/>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-name\" id=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-chart__info-name\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-symbol\" id=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-chart__info-symbol\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-current\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-price\" id=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-chart__info-price\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-change\" id=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-chart__info-change\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-extra\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-label\">Market Cap<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-marketcap\" id=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-chart__info-marketcap\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<div class=\"chart__controls\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__controls-group\">\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--24h\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-btn-24h\">24h<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--7d\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-btn-7d\">7d<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--30d\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-btn-30d\">30d<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--1y\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-btn-1y\">1y<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--all-time\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-btn-all-time\">All Time<\/button>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t<div class=\"chart__container\">\n\t\t<canvas class=\"chart__canvas\" id=\"crypto_chart_6aab58b531a07-cryptoChart\"><\/canvas>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<h2>\uc815\ubd80 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \ud655\ub960\u2026\uce7c\uc2dc\u00b7\ud3f4\ub9ac\ub9c8\ucf13\uc740 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub098<\/h2>\r\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxgovtshutdown\/will-the-government-shut-down\/kxgovtshutdown-26oct01\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">\uce7c\uc2dc<\/a>\uc640 \ud3f4\ub9ac\ub9c8\ucf13 \uac19\uc740 \uc608\uce21\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0ac\uac74\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uae08\uc561\uc744 \uc9c0\uae09\ud558\uace0, \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74 \uc9c0\uae09\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \uacc4\uc57d\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ud615\uc131\ub418\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0ac\uac74\uc758 \ubc1c\uc0dd \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc5b4\ub290 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294\uc9c0 \ud655\uc778\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">\uc774\ubc88\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ubc1b\uc740 \uacc4\uc57d\uc740 2026\ub144 10\uc6d4 1\uc77c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uac08\uc9c0\ub97c \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc758\ud68c\uac00 \ud574\ub2f9 \ub0a0\uc9dc\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc784\uc2dc\uc608\uc0b0\uc548\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc815\ubd80 \uc6b4\uc601 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uba74 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc608\uc0b0 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 10\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uae30\uc900 \uacc4\uc57d\uc740 &#8216;\uc544\ub2c8\uc624(No)&#8217;\ub85c \uc885\ub8cc\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/08\/content-img-1-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">\uc774 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ud558\uc6d0\uc758 \uc784\uc2dc\uc608\uc0b0\uc548 \ud1b5\uacfc\ub294 \uc608\uce21\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc989\uac01 \ubc18\uc601\ub410\ub2e4. 10\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ud558\uc6d0 \ud45c\uacb0 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc57d 59%\uc5d0\uc11c 48%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">\ub2e4\ub9cc \ud558\uc6d0 \ud45c\uacb0\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ud574\uc18c\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc784\uc2dc\uc608\uc0b0\uc548\uc774 \uc2e4\uc81c \ud6a8\ub825\uc744 \uac16\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc758\ud68c\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc808\ucc28\uc640 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839 \uc11c\uba85 \ub4f1\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\uba70, \uc785\ubc95 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc774 \ubcc0\uacbd\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc608\uce21\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\ub3c4 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<p>\ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc\ubcc4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \ud55c\ub54c \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\ub97c \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac04 \ud655\ub960 \ucc28\uc774\uac00 12%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc774\uc0c1 \ubc8c\uc5b4\uc9c0\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\ub4e4 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc5b4\ub290 \uc815\ub3c4 \uc904\uc5c8\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ub450\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<h2>\uc874\uc2a8 \uc758\uc7a5\u00b7\uacf5\ud654\ub2f9 &#8220;\uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc704\ud5d8 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc904\uc5ec\uc57c&#8221;<\/h2>\r\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">\ub9c8\uc774\ud06c \uc874\uc2a8 \ubbf8 \ud558\uc6d0\uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \uc784\uc2dc\uc608\uc0b0\uc548\uc744 \uc870\uae30\uc5d0 \ucc98\ub9ac\ud55c \ubc30\uacbd\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70 \uc9c1\uc804 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc815\ubd80 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<p>\uc874\uc2a8 \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \ubc95\uc548\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub300\ud55c \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9\uc744 \uaca8\ub0e5\ud574 9\uc6d4 30\uc77c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uadf8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ucc45\uc784\uc744 \uc838\uc57c \ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ucde8\uc9c0\ub85c \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\r\n<figure style=\"width: 691px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2026\/08\/content-img-2-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"691\" height=\"444\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">\uc0ac\uc9c4 \ucd9c\ucc98: Austin Scott<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">\uacf5\ud654\ub2f9\uc758 \uc624\uc2a4\ud2f4 \uc2a4\ucf67 \ud558\uc6d0\uc758\uc6d0 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc815\ubd80 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4\uc774 \uad6d\ubbfc\uacfc \ud589\uc815 \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ud63c\ub780\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \uc608\uc0b0 \uc2dc\ud55c \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">\ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9 \uc758\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc740 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uc774\ubc88 \ubc95\uc548\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub300\ud45c\ub97c \ub358\uc84c\ub2e4. \ud558\uc6d0 \uc138\ucd9c\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c\uc758 \ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9 \uac04\uc0ac\uc778 \ub85c\uc0ac \ub378\ub77c\uc6b0\ub85c \uc758\uc6d0\ub3c4 \ubc18\ub300 \uc9c4\uc601\uc5d0 \uc130\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<p class=\"isSelectedEnd\">\uc758\ud68c\uc758 \uc608\uc0b0 \uac08\ub4f1\ub3c4 \ub05d\ub09c \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacf5\ud654\ub2f9 \uc9c0\ub3c4\ubd80\ub294 \ub0a8\uc740 \ud68c\uae30 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \uad6d\ubc29\ube44\uc640 \ub18d\uc5c5 \uc9c0\uc6d0, \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \uc120\uac70\uc81c\ub3c4 \uac1c\ud3b8\uc548 \ub4f1\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c \ubcc4\ub3c4\uc758 \uc57d 950\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub97c \ub17c\uc758\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc54c\ub824\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<p>\uacb0\uad6d \uc774\ubc88 \uc784\uc2dc\uc608\uc0b0\uc548\uc740 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc9c0\ucd9c \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uac08\ub4f1\uc744 \ud574\uacb0\ud588\ub2e4\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc9d1\uc911\ub410\ub358 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \ub4a4\ub85c \ubbf8\ub8ec \uc870\uce58\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4. \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc608\uc0b0 \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uad50\ucc29 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0 \ube60\uc9c0\ub294\uc9c0\uc640 \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7\uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \ubc0f \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0 \ud22c\uc790\uc2ec\ub9ac \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ud568\uaed8 \ud655\uc778\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\r\n<h3><b>\ud568\uaed8 \uc77d\uc5b4\ubcfc \ub9cc\ud55c \uae30\uc0ac: <\/b><\/h3>\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li><a href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/kr\/cryptocurrency\/best-meme-coins\/\">2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud560\ub9cc\ud55c \ubc08\ucf54\uc778 \ucd94\ucc9c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2b8\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\r\n\t<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/kr\/news\/grayscale-xrp-trust-selloff-institutional-adoption-drop-2026\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">\uadf8\ub808\uc774\uc2a4\ucf00\uc77c XRP \ubcf4\uc720\ub7c9 \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30 \uae09\uac10\u20261\uc5b58000\ub9cc\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\ub3c4, \uae30\uad00 \uc218\uc694 \ub454\ud654 \uc2e0\ud638?<\/a><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8 \ud558\uc6d0\uc774 \uc9c0\ub09c 7\uc6d4 21\uc77c \ucc2c\uc131 220\ud45c, \ubc18\ub300 205\ud45c\ub85c \uc784\uc2dc\uc608\uc0b0\uc548(Continuing Resolution\u00b7CR)\uc744 \ud1b5\uacfc\uc2dc\ucf30\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c 9\uc6d4 30\uc77c\ub85c \uc608\uc815\ub410\ub358 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80 \uc608\uc0b0 \uc2dc\ud55c\uc744 12\uc6d4 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