{"id":37988,"date":"2026-09-01T16:54:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T16:54:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/fr\/?p=37988"},"modified":"2026-08-27T08:21:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T08:21:39","slug":"avertissement-de-cz-bitcoin-face-au-cycle-de-4-ans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/fr\/actu\/avertissement-de-cz-bitcoin-face-au-cycle-de-4-ans\/","title":{"rendered":"Avertissement de CZ : Bitcoin face au cycle de 4 ans"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Changpeng Zhao, fondateur de Binance plus connu sous le nom de <strong>CZ<\/strong>, a mis en garde contre les paris trop concentr\u00e9s sur le <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> lors d&rsquo;un AMA Binance Clubhouse \u00e0 Bali. Ses commentaires interviennent alors que le Bitcoin se situe environ 49 % en dessous de son sommet historique, selon le rapport ChainCheck de la mi-ao\u00fbt 2026 de <strong>VanEck<\/strong>.<\/p>\r\n<p>VanEck a pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 que le Bitcoin a cl\u00f4tur\u00e9 \u00e0 63 549 $ le 11 ao\u00fbt, restant essentiellement stable d&rsquo;un mois sur l&rsquo;autre. Parall\u00e8lement, la volatilit\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9e sur 30 jours est retomb\u00e9e \u00e0 27,2 % en rythme annuel, soit bien en dessous de la moyenne historique proche de 80 %.<\/p>\r\n<p>CZ a \u00e9galement affirm\u00e9 que le cycle traditionnel de quatre ans du march\u00e9 reste intact, pla\u00e7ant son avertissement sur la concentration au sein d&rsquo;une vision ax\u00e9e sur le cadre cyclique \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\r\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Should You Go ALL IN on Bitcoin? Binance Founder CZ\u2019s Answer (and Why DCA) | Bali Clubhouse 2026 Q&amp;A\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/spDNAfCddMc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\r\n<p>Selon le compte-rendu officiel de Binance pour cet AMA, CZ a d\u00e9conseill\u00e9 les mises concentr\u00e9es. Le compte d\u00e9crit une strat\u00e9gie d&rsquo;investissement programm\u00e9e (DCA) mensuelle de 1 % \u00e0 10 % des revenus dans les actifs majeurs, sans toutefois fournir de plan d&rsquo;allocation personnalis\u00e9 d\u00e9taill\u00e9.<\/p>\r\n<p>VanEck a rapport\u00e9 que le Bitcoin a \u00e9volu\u00e9 dans une fourchette relativement \u00e9troite de 62 265 $ \u00e0 66 509 $ au cours des 30 derniers jours, apr\u00e8s s&rsquo;\u00eatre stabilis\u00e9 suite \u00e0 son point bas de juin. La firme a aussi not\u00e9 que le volume de trading au comptant (spot) sur cette p\u00e9riode a chut\u00e9 de 27 % par rapport au mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, se classant dans le 10e percentile de son historique.<\/p>\r\n<h2>Le cycle de quatre ans du Bitcoin confirm\u00e9 par les chiffres de VanEck<\/h2>\r\n<p>Concernant le cycle de quatre ans, CZ a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que le mod\u00e8le reste tr\u00e8s solide. Il a compar\u00e9 les conditions actuelles du march\u00e9 \u00e0 celles d&rsquo;il y a quatre ans, tout en reconnaissant qu&rsquo;il est difficile d&rsquo;identifier le prochain catalyseur majeur.<\/p>\r\n<p>Les donn\u00e9es cycliques de VanEck apportent un contexte historique \u00e0 ce point de vue. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9nombre quatre cycles pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents pour le Bitcoin depuis 2011 et \u00e9value actuellement le cinqui\u00e8me.<\/p>\r\n<p>En excluant la baisse de 2011 marqu\u00e9e par de faibles volumes, les phases baissi\u00e8res (du sommet au creux) des trois cycles suivants ont dur\u00e9 en moyenne 12,7 mois. VanEck a indiqu\u00e9 que le Bitcoin entrait dans le 10e mois de sa baisse depuis le sommet d&rsquo;octobre 2025.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/08\/content-img-1-45.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\r\n\r\n<p>Rendements mensuels du Bitcoin, <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"http:\/\/coinglass.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Coinglass<\/a><\/p>\r\n<p>En utilisant la moyenne de l&rsquo;\u00e9chantillon complet, VanEck estime que la prochaine phase d&rsquo;accumulation commencerait en septembre. En excluant l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e 2011, ce point se situerait plut\u00f4t en octobre ou novembre. La firme a pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 qu&rsquo;elle pr\u00e9f\u00e9rait pr\u00e9senter une fourchette plut\u00f4t que de choisir une date pr\u00e9coce, tout en rappelant que les performances pass\u00e9es ne garantissent pas les r\u00e9sultats futurs.<\/p>\r\n<p>Le tableau de bord de capitulation de VanEck montrait que 8 des 12 signaux suivis \u00e9taient activ\u00e9s au 12 ao\u00fbt. La firme interpr\u00e8te ces lectures comme la preuve que le Bitcoin approche, ou se trouve peut-\u00eatre d\u00e9j\u00e0, dans une phase d&rsquo;accumulation.<\/p>\r\n<p>Cependant, elle a \u00e9galement d\u00e9crit l&rsquo;historique des rendements futurs comme mitig\u00e9 : les relev\u00e9s avec 8 \u00e0 12 indicateurs activ\u00e9s ne surpassent la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du Bitcoin qu&rsquo;\u00e0 un horizon d&rsquo;un an, et l&rsquo;\u00e9chantillon sous-jacent reste restreint et fortement chevauchant.<\/p>\r\n<h2>Les d\u00e9tenteurs \u00e0 long terme d\u00e9placent leurs jetons<\/h2>\r\n<p>Les donn\u00e9es on-chain de VanEck r\u00e9v\u00e8lent que les pi\u00e8ces d\u00e9tenues depuis plus d&rsquo;un an ont diminu\u00e9 d&rsquo;environ 356 000 BTC sur 30 jours, soit une baisse de 2,9 % pour atteindre 11,84 millions de BTC. La part des d\u00e9tenteurs \u00e0 long terme dans l&rsquo;offre en circulation est tomb\u00e9e \u00e0 59,1 %, passant sous la barre des 60 % pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis des mois.<\/p>\r\n<p>Ce mouvement a \u00e9t\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9 \u00e0 travers les six tranches de d\u00e9tention \u00e0 long terme, bien qu&rsquo;il ait \u00e9t\u00e9 concentr\u00e9 sur les cohortes de pi\u00e8ces les plus \u00ab\u00a0jeunes\u00a0\u00bb et d&rsquo;\u00e2ge moyen. Les avoirs dans la tranche de un \u00e0 deux ans ont chut\u00e9 d&rsquo;environ 156 000 BTC, tandis que la tranche de deux \u00e0 trois ans a d\u00e9clin\u00e9 d&rsquo;environ 76 000 BTC. En revanche, les pi\u00e8ces d\u00e9tenues depuis plus de 10 ans n&rsquo;ont diminu\u00e9 que de 4 000 BTC environ.<\/p>\r\n<p>VanEck a soulign\u00e9 que la base de d\u00e9tenteurs \u00e0 long terme est en phase de renouvellement (churn) plut\u00f4t qu&rsquo;en plein effondrement, car les pi\u00e8ces plus r\u00e9centes franchissant le seuil d&rsquo;un an ont remplac\u00e9 une quantit\u00e9 presque \u00e9gale de pi\u00e8ces d\u00e9plac\u00e9es.<\/p>\r\n<p>N\u00e9anmoins, le rapport qualifie ce d\u00e9clin net de premier retrait mensuel significatif chez les d\u00e9tenteurs \u00e0 long terme depuis des mois, notant que ces derniers distribuent leurs actifs durant la phase de reprise.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Changpeng Zhao, fondateur de Binance plus connu sous le nom de CZ, a mis en garde contre les paris trop concentr\u00e9s sur le Bitcoin lors d&rsquo;un AMA Binance Clubhouse \u00e0 Bali. Ses commentaires interviennent alors que le Bitcoin se situe environ 49 % en dessous de son sommet historique, selon le rapport ChainCheck de la..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":135978,"featured_media":37986,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"coin":[15],"class_list":["post-37988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actu"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Avertissement de CZ : Bitcoin face au cycle de 4 ans<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"CZ conseille la prudence sur le Bitcoin ; le rapport VanEck ChainCheck r\u00e9v\u00e8le une volatilit\u00e9 en baisse et une phase d&#039;accumulation proche\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/fr\/actu\/avertissement-de-cz-bitcoin-face-au-cycle-de-4-ans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Avertissement de CZ : Bitcoin face au cycle de 4 ans\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CZ conseille la prudence sur le Bitcoin ; 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