{"id":30624,"date":"2026-01-30T10:00:57","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T10:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/fr\/?p=30624"},"modified":"2026-01-29T23:37:13","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T23:37:13","slug":"bitcoin-fin-de-la-correction-ou-chute-supplementaire-a-venir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/fr\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-fin-de-la-correction-ou-chute-supplementaire-a-venir\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin : fin de la correction ou chute suppl\u00e9mentaire \u00e0 venir ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Apr\u00e8s plusieurs semaines de volatilit\u00e9 intense, le Bitcoin traverse une phase d\u00e9licate<\/strong> qui divise les analystes. D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, certains indicateurs laissent penser qu\u2019un rebond pourrait se pr\u00e9parer. De l\u2019autre, le contexte macro\u00e9conomique et les march\u00e9s d\u00e9riv\u00e9s incitent clairement \u00e0 la prudence.<\/p>\n

La r\u00e9cente explosion des positions longues \u00e0 effet de levier sur Bitfinex soul\u00e8ve une question cl\u00e9 : s\u2019agit-il d\u2019un signal haussier ou d\u2019un pi\u00e8ge annon\u00e7ant une nouvelle vague de baisse ?<\/p>\n

Les positions longues explosent sur Bitfinex, mais le signal reste ambigu<\/h2>\n

Les positions longues sur marge du Bitcoin sur l\u2019exchange Bitfinex ont atteint un plus haut de deux ans,<\/strong> avec pr\u00e8s de 83 933 BTC engag\u00e9s. En valeur nominale, cela repr\u00e9sente environ 7,3 milliards de dollars, un chiffre impressionnant au premier regard.<\/p>\n

Pourtant, cette hausse ne refl\u00e8te pas forc\u00e9ment un optimisme massif sur le prix du Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

La raison principale tient au fonctionnement m\u00eame de la plateforme. Bitfinex impose des d\u00e9p\u00f4ts de collat\u00e9ral sup\u00e9rieurs au montant emprunt\u00e9, ce qui maintient le co\u00fbt d\u2019emprunt annuel sous la barre des 0,01 %. <\/strong><\/p>\n

De nombreux traders privil\u00e9gient donc la marge plut\u00f4t que les contrats \u00e0 terme, afin d\u2019\u00e9viter le co\u00fbt de portage qui avoisine actuellement 5 % par an sur les futures Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

En parall\u00e8le, les contrats \u00e0 terme BTC sur deux mois continuent d\u2019\u00e9voluer dans une zone neutre.<\/strong> En temps normal, ces futures affichent une prime annualis\u00e9e comprise entre 5 % et 10 % par rapport au march\u00e9 spot.<\/p>\n

Lors des phases franchement haussi\u00e8res, cet indicateur d\u00e9passe largement les 10 %. La derni\u00e8re occurrence remonte \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier 2025, lorsque le Bitcoin s\u2019\u00e9changeait autour de 103 500 $. Aujourd\u2019hui, ce signal reste absent,<\/strong> ce qui limite la port\u00e9e haussi\u00e8re des positions longues observ\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Un contexte macro\u00e9conomique d\u00e9favorable au risque<\/h2>\n

La r\u00e9cente chute du Bitcoin<\/a> vers la zone des 84 000 $<\/strong> s\u2019inscrit dans un mouvement global de repli face au risque. Les march\u00e9s actions, en particulier les valeurs technologiques, ont subi une forte pression.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Microsoft a vu son titre chuter de 11 % apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce d\u2019importants investissements et de revenus d\u00e9cevants sur son activit\u00e9 cloud. Cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement a raviv\u00e9 les inqui\u00e9tudes li\u00e9es \u00e0 la valorisation du secteur de l\u2019intelligence artificielle.<\/p>\n

M\u00eame les actifs r\u00e9put\u00e9s refuges n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9pargn\u00e9s. L\u2019or a bri\u00e8vement perdu 8 % en moins de trente minutes avant de r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer une partie de ses pertes. Dans le m\u00eame temps, les volumes de trading sur l\u2019ETF SPDR Gold Shares ont atteint un record historique, signe d\u2019une nervosit\u00e9 extr\u00eame des investisseurs.<\/p>\n

Avec l\u2019or et l\u2019argent affichant une capitalisation combin\u00e9e de plus de 43 000 milliards de dollars,<\/strong> certains acteurs de march\u00e9 redoutent un sc\u00e9nario de \u00ab d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation mon\u00e9taire \u00bb. Les investisseurs cherchent alors \u00e0 se positionner sur des actifs rares, m\u00eame si les rendements obligataires restent sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 3,5 %.<\/p>\n

Rebond imminent ou poursuite de la correction ?<\/h2>\n

Malgr\u00e9 la hausse marqu\u00e9e des positions longues sur Bitfinex, l\u2019analyse globale des donn\u00e9es on-chain et des march\u00e9s d\u00e9riv\u00e9s ne confirme pas encore un retournement haussier solide. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Les strat\u00e9gies d\u2019arbitrage, notamment le cash and carry,<\/strong> neutralisent en grande partie l\u2019impact de ces positions, car elles impliquent souvent la vente simultan\u00e9e de contrats \u00e0 terme.
\nEn l\u2019\u00e9tat actuel, le Bitcoin \u00e9volue dans une zone d\u2019incertitude.<\/p>\n

Un rebond technique reste possible, mais les risques de nouvelles liquidations forc\u00e9es persistent, surtout apr\u00e8s l\u2019effacement r\u00e9cent de centaines de millions de dollars de positions sur les futures. Tant que la confiance ne revient pas sur l\u2019ensemble des march\u00e9s, la prudence demeure de mise pour les investisseurs crypto.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Apr\u00e8s plusieurs semaines de volatilit\u00e9 intense, le Bitcoin traverse une phase d\u00e9licate qui divise les analystes. D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, certains indicateurs laissent penser qu\u2019un rebond pourrait se pr\u00e9parer. De l\u2019autre, le contexte macro\u00e9conomique et les march\u00e9s d\u00e9riv\u00e9s incitent clairement \u00e0 la prudence. La r\u00e9cente explosion des positions longues \u00e0 effet de levier sur Bitfinex soul\u00e8ve une..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":135978,"featured_media":30626,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"coin":[15],"class_list":["post-30624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin : fin de la correction ou chute suppl\u00e9mentaire \u00e0 venir ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin : fin de la correction ou chute suppl\u00e9mentaire \u00e0 venir ? 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