{"id":31000,"date":"2026-02-27T13:18:36","date_gmt":"2026-02-27T13:18:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/es\/?p=31000"},"modified":"2026-02-27T12:26:21","modified_gmt":"2026-02-27T12:26:21","slug":"los-traders-de-polymarket-podrian-estar-subestimando-a-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/es\/noticias\/altcoins\/los-traders-de-polymarket-podrian-estar-subestimando-a-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Los traders de Polymarket podr\u00edan estar subestimando a Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Polymarket, el mercado de predicci\u00f3n m\u00e1s grande del mundo, muestra actualmente a traders apostando millones de d\u00f3lares sobre el precio futuro de Bitcoin, pero las probabilidades de una ruptura masiva parecen sorprendentemente bajas dado el significativo inter\u00e9s institucional.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201c\u00bfQu\u00e9 precio alcanzar\u00e1 Bitcoin en 2026?\u201d registr\u00f3 un volumen de m\u00e1s de 20.000.000 USD por parte de los traders. Se trata de una muestra significativa.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A finales de febrero, el mercado valora las probabilidades de que Bitcoin alcance los 100.000 USD en aproximadamente un 39%. Mientras tanto, las acciones de \u00abS\u00ed\u00bb para que Bitcoin mantenga niveles por encima de los 90.000 USD se sit\u00faan cerca del 50%.<\/p>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, las apuestas bajistas son pesadas. La probabilidad de que Bitcoin se mantenga por debajo o caiga hasta el rango de los 55.000 USD est\u00e1 captando un volumen importante.<\/p>\n<p>Actualmente, BTC cotiza a 67,5k USD.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><div class=\"chart crypto-chart-instance\" id=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894\"\n\tdata-coin-id=\"bitcoin\">\n\t<div class=\"chart__header\">\n\t\t<div class=\"chart__info\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<img id=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-chart__info-icon-img\" \/>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-name\" id=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-chart__info-name\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-symbol\" id=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-chart__info-symbol\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-current\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-price\" id=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-chart__info-price\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-change\" id=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-chart__info-change\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-extra\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-label\">Market Cap<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__info-marketcap\" id=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-chart__info-marketcap\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<div class=\"chart__controls\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"chart__controls-group\">\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--24h\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-btn-24h\">24h<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--7d\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-btn-7d\">7d<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--30d\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-btn-30d\">30d<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--1y\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-btn-1y\">1y<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--all-time\"\n\t\t\t\t\tid=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-btn-all-time\">All Time<\/button>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t<div class=\"chart__container\">\n\t\t<canvas class=\"chart__canvas\" id=\"crypto_chart_6a3d8eb05c894-cryptoChart\"><\/canvas>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 los traders pagan una prima por protecci\u00f3n ante ca\u00eddas?<\/h2>\n<p>Los traders est\u00e1n pagando una prima por protecci\u00f3n ante ca\u00eddas. Esta perspectiva cautelosa contrasta fuertemente con algunos de los objetivos de precios m\u00e1s explosivos que vemos por parte de los analistas.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin up or down?  <\/p>\n<p>5 minute up\/down crypto polymarkets are now live.   <\/p>\n<p>Powered &amp; secured by Chainlink \ud83e\udd1d <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/d4PDruOEsz\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">pic.twitter.com\/d4PDruOEsz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Polymarket (@Polymarket) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Polymarket\/status\/2022343906168623112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">February 13, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Mientras que los traders de Polymarket dudan en valorar una moneda de seis cifras, los expertos macroecon\u00f3micos tienen una visi\u00f3n diferente. El CEO de Real Vision, Raoul Pal, ha predicho que Bitcoin podr\u00eda alcanzar los 140.000 USD para 2026, un objetivo que los actuales mercados de predicci\u00f3n consideran estad\u00edsticamente improbable.<\/p>\n<p>Los mercados son eficientes, pero tambi\u00e9n son emocionales. Las probabilidades actuales en Polymarket probablemente reflejan el \u00absesgo de recencia\u00bb, la tendencia psicol\u00f3gica a dar demasiado peso a los eventos recientes. Debido a que el mercado ha estado vol\u00e1til o estancado recientemente, los traders tienen dificultades para visualizar una ruptura masiva.<\/p>\n<p>Esto crea un poderoso indicador de sentimiento. Como ha se\u00f1alado el cofundador de Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, los mercados de predicci\u00f3n como Polymarket tienen el potencial de reemplazar los ciclos de noticias tradicionales y a los expertos del sistema f\u00edat al obligar a los participantes a respaldar sus palabras con dinero.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 Polymarket es importante para Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Will Bitcoin hit $60K or $80K first? \ud83d\udd0d<\/p>\n<p>&quot;If <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">$BTC<\/a> doesn&#39;t hit $59k-$60k before Monday, then $80k.&quot; &#8212; Quote from our resident expert <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jonmorgan_HODL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">@jonmorgan_HODL<\/a> on this Polymarket (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptotwitsHQ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">@CryptotwitsHQ<\/a>) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qg6l9njDwN\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">pic.twitter.com\/qg6l9njDwN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; True Odds Podcast (@TrueOddsPod) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TrueOddsPod\/status\/2027061730526855659?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">February 26, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Los mercados de apuestas como Polymarket y Kalshi son plataformas donde las personas negocian acciones sobre probabilidades de resultados en lugar de los activos en s\u00ed. Y los usuarios han estado apostando por resultados espec\u00edficos, como \u00ab\u00bfAlcanzar\u00e1 Bitcoin los 100.000 USD en 2026?\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Dado que hay dinero en juego, estos mercados a menudo atraviesan el ruido de los influencers de las redes sociales y el hype.<\/p>\n<p>Una acci\u00f3n de \u00abS\u00ed\u00bb por 39 centavos implica que el mercado cree que hay un 39% de probabilidad de que ese evento ocurra. Si sucede, la acci\u00f3n paga 1,00 USD. Si no sucede, se va a cero.<\/p>\n<p>Entonces, \u00bfcu\u00e1l es el lado alcista? Los mercados de predicci\u00f3n rara vez tienen en cuenta los choques estructurales. Son excelentes para visualizar el sentimiento actual, pero a menudo terribles para predecir cambios repentinos de r\u00e9gimen, como la adopci\u00f3n por parte de un nuevo estado-naci\u00f3n o un choque de oferta tras el halving.<\/p>\n<p>Si se observan los datos on-chain, las ballenas contin\u00faan acumulando. Cuando los mercados de predicci\u00f3n divergen tanto de las tendencias de acumulaci\u00f3n on-chain, a menudo indica una oportunidad. El mercado est\u00e1 valorando el aburrimiento, no la ruptura.<\/p>\n<p>Recientemente, la CFTC reclam\u00f3 autoridad exclusiva sobre los mercados de predicci\u00f3n en los EE. UU., creando fricci\u00f3n para las instituciones estadounidenses que, de otro modo, podr\u00edan inundar estos mercados con liquidez de \u00abdinero inteligente\u00bb. Esto significa que las probabilidades que se ven podr\u00edan no reflejar completamente el sentimiento institucional de EE. UU.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, la tendencia podr\u00eda estar cambiando. Un juez de Tennessee bloque\u00f3 recientemente una acci\u00f3n contra la plataforma de predicci\u00f3n Kalshi, se\u00f1alando que los tribunales se est\u00e1n volviendo m\u00e1s abiertos a estos instrumentos financieros. A medida que mejore la claridad regulatoria, es posible que veamos c\u00f3mo las \u00abprobabilidades\u00bb en sitios como Polymarket cambian dr\u00e1sticamente a medida que entra m\u00e1s capital en escena.<\/p>\n<div class=\"nnbtc-key-takeaways\"><strong>DESCUBRE <a href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/es\/guias\/que-es-polymarket\/\">qu\u00e9 es Polymarket<\/a><\/strong><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Los traders de Polymarket podr\u00edan estar subestimando a Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":135886,"featured_media":30997,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[249],"tags":[10,7],"coin":[74],"class_list":["post-31000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoins","tag-bitcoin","tag-criptomonedas"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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