Even if the price of Bitcoin doesn’t go to zero, the chances the Bitcoin community convincing the wider public, governments, and industry that Bitcoin really represents the future of the world’s digital economy will become extremely unlikely. . . . this grand technological experiment may have run its course.
The Swiss Franc might be the currency getting all the attention, but the real blood bath is in Bitcoin. Remember how Bitcoin was supposed to change everything? And the dollar was dead? Boy, was that ever wrong. . . . Some are suggesting that the precipitous decline in the currency is probably its death knell.
Bitcoin is proving a big disappointment. . . . There’s almost certainly more bad news to come. The electronic token has lots of enduring problems. As a store of value that is not subject to government intervention, it lacks the support of authorities and is always in danger of being banned. . . . Defenders of Bitcoin have not given up hope. Their emphasis has shifted though, from the currency to the underlying blockchain processing software. . . . But it will not bring up the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin the currency may be dying, but it doesn’t matter. . . . Certainly, a trend line from November 2013 to now, extrapolated forwards, intersects worthlessness sometime later this year. . . . This could create a negative feedback loop as miners retire, the network becomes less secure and resilient, investors lose faith, and the price drops further.
Bitcoin isn’t going to replace any fiat currencies as long as it feels intuitively safer for most people to keep their savings in a bank account instead of in a digital wallet. . . . This brings us to the current crisis in Bitcoin: far from widespread adoption giving it resilience and reliability, the system may be starting to fall apart. . . . These issues add up to what we’re seeing now – the slow, inexorable decline in the price of a digital currency with no value beyond the trust in the system.
The virtual currency is looking increasingly beleaguered, and its price had been dropping steadily in recent months. . . . It is a reminder of the security issues that face any virtual currency seeking mainstream adoption, and it brings back memories of the infamous exchange Mt. Gox. . . . Combined with bitcoin’s reputation as an enabler for criminal activity, it is likely this public-image problem is hindering mainstream adoption. As one commenter on the discussion board Hacker News remarks, bitcoin is an “even worse” investment than gold.
We’ll sign off with the simple point that unless a massive amount of new capital is transferred into Bitcoin market sharpish — which is not impossible, since there are still a number of deep pocketed believers out there — it’s hard to imagine the asset class going any other way but south. Furthermore, it’s unlikely at this stage that either price rigging, mining cartels or lower energy costs will be able to reverse that trend.
It kills any chance that bitcoin could be a mainstream currency. No one wants to hold a currency that has that great a risk of depreciating in value. Most people who put money in bitcoin wallets in 2014 and didn’t spend it instantly took a hit. It is dead, let me repeat, dead, as a mainstream currency.
And that Bitcoin could only survive at the margins, where it would be isolated, and in no position to threaten Visa or Mastercard, or the underlying payment and messaging services that underpin the world financial system as it stands today. Then there’s The Oracle of Omaha who has one four letter word for bitcoin – joke.
Right now, Bitcoin is only mostly dead. As an investment, it was the worst of 2014. . . . The problem, though, is that Bitcoin will likely not survive to get to that level of innovation. Will Bitcoin enthusiasts support it after they realize it has ceased to be useful as a currency and is a terrible investment? Not likely. At some point they are going to realize that they are subsidizing Bitcoin for theoretical and emotional reasons so that it can be exploited by regulation-seeking venture capitalists. When that happens Bitcoin will shift from being mostly dead to being all dead.