9 CommentsFirst of all I want to congratulate our monthly giveaway contest winner,Mohan Ivt from India. Mohan won $100 in Bitcoins (there was an option between this and a ticket to Inside Bitcoins – link to transaction). I’ll be running a new giveaway next month so stay tuned.
As 2014 comes to an end I thought I’d take a moment and analyse what Bitcoiners are feeling regarding their price predictions in 2015. If you remember, back in September I’ve asked people to try and predict what would be Bitcoin’s price on March 21st 2015. I’ve gotten an amazing response to this survey and almost 1,800 people have filled it out anonymously until today. You can see the results for yourself here.
Although Bitcoin has been getting some very positive press lately (e.g. Microsoft adding Bitcoin payments, Time INC. accepting Bitcoin etc.), but the exchange rate seems to be steadily declining. I’m not sure this is necessarily  a bad thing as this separates  the opportunists and “gamblers” from the actual Bitcoin advocates and gives a much more realistic reflection of Bitcoin’s price.
I took a look at the average number I got for Bitcoin’s price prediction as time went by and noticed that there was a very clear downtrend in the results. Keep in mind that I excluded any results that were “off the charts” like $100K etc.
As you can see the average prediction went from a little over $2000 to somewhere around $1750 (12.5% decline). I then decided to also check the median. The result was pretty much the same. The median prediction went from being around $1000 to $850 – a 15% decline.
Interestingly enough most people still think Bitcoin’s price will be higher than what it is today, but this may be due to the fact that most people who are filling out this survey are already involved with Bitcoin or have a certain interest in it succeeding.
Personally, as 2014 end I have to say that I don’t have my hopes up for Bitcoin’s price to rise dramatically any time soon but I think that’s a good thing. The more stable the exchange rate, the better Bitcoin can act as an actual currency. Hopefully once fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price will reduce, more and more people will start buying stuff with it. The true value of Bitcoin lies in it’s technology and not in it’s exchange rate. But until that happens, have a happy new year 🙂
I think that the adoption by the likes of microsoft etc is and has been a double edged sword. Bitcoin is transacted but is typically dumped straight into fiat via the merchand’s sales process. Seems to me that maybe some oldtimers and maybe miners etc etc are spending some of their BTC. But not enough people are buying. Buying BTC still has a slightly dodgy air around it and many wont dare linking their accounts or credit cards with exchanges. So IMO BTC needs to be sold to the masses by someone they trust. Eg use your CC once at a place of trust, buy some BTC and then use around the net etc without having to divulge anymore about yourself to transact.
I think you need go back to your statistics textbook and review how to analyse data. You can’t just plot samples overtime and say there is a down trend. This seems more like garbage in garbage out or madeup data. 🙂
this is just typically corrective bearmarket. technically speaking. we bubbled hard.. so it needs to correct . 🙂 most hcore bitcoin ppl just want bitcoin to go down as hard as it possibly can.. hence all bearish posts everywhere .. so they can buy as cheap as possible(they understand limited supply and halving time in 2016 🙂 ), it’s realy not going to take much effort to go ath again.. when the real bottom is found.. and confirmed.. , tim draper himself could bring price up to ath .. lol if you think bitcion will not be pumped.. think again.. the amount of ppl that can buy bitcoin now.. is much higher and easyer then it was in 2013.. and much more ppl know what bitcoin is now.. .. once it starts to shoot up. we all will be amazed again thinking..why didnt i buy at 300$.. my guess is: 250$ will be bottomish.. greed target would be 220$ but trying to hit tops and bottoms is a tricky game
And the median prediction was going to go even lower than $850 if more people voted. I don’t think the price will go over $600 next year.
I think it will be 1-2 years until these fluctuations will reduce and we won’t pay $300 for a Bitcoin now and a few months later $600.
Just the fact that Microsoft has added Bitcoin payments should make the price go up.
no this is bear market.. good news just gives little up spikes but middterm it’s still bearish.. thats what markets do